Hearthstone Pack Odds
Answer up front: a legendary lands in about 5% of packs — one per 20 on average — and every card has roughly a 1% chance to be legendary. Blizzard publishes the per-expansion probabilities in-game; the engine here is built on exactly those two rules (5% per pack, pity at 40) and nothing else.
The 40-Pack Pity Timer
The rules most players get wrong: the pity timer is per expansion set, it counts packs since your last legendary from that set, and it is invisible in-game. At 39 dry packs your next pack from that set is guaranteed — enter your count above and the calculator shows the odds of your next stretch instead of the meaningless flat 5%.
Pack Milestones
| Metric | Packs |
|---|---|
| Expected packs per legendary | 17.4 |
| P50 (coin-flip point) | 14 |
| P90 | 40 |
| Worst case (pity floor) | 40 |
| Chance of a 39-pack dry streak | 13.5% |
The expected value (17.4 packs) sits below the naive 1/5% = 20 because the pity floor cuts the unlucky tail off. Epics average one per five packs with no officially published floor.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the odds of a legendary in a Hearthstone pack?
About 5% per pack — roughly one legendary every 20 packs — per Blizzard's official probability disclosure. The pity timer improves the worst case dramatically: see below.
What is the Hearthstone pity timer?
You are guaranteed a legendary within 40 packs of the same expansion since your last one. The counter is hidden in-game but tracked by this calculator: enter how many packs you have opened since your last legendary and see the odds for your next stretch.
Is the pity timer per expansion set?
Yes — every set keeps its own counter, and opening a legendary from that set resets only that set's timer. Mixing packs from different expansions means several independent pity clocks.
Is there an epic pity timer?
No officially confirmed one. Epics average about one per five packs (~21% per pack, also officially disclosed), but only the legendary 40-pack guarantee is a published hard rule.